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Click here to Order your Radar Equipment Online ANALYSIS OF TIME SECTIONS Time sections are a special aid in the tropics and should be plotted and analyzed for all key tropical stations. The format is important, for it provides for rapid handling of various weather information. Figure 9-2-1 shows a form for time section analysis. The vertical coordinate of a time section may be pressure, pressure altitude, or height. It is advantageous to have both a pressure and height scale, since upper winds are reported at fixed levels, while significant points of raob soundings are given in millibars. Time is plotted along the horizontal coordinate and may be plotted left to right or vice versa. The most common time sections are as follows: surface pressuregraphs of 24-hour pressure changes upper heightsgraphs of 24-hour height changes upper windswind plots at 2,000-foot intervals up to 20,000 feet, then every 5,000 feet The first objective of time section analysis is to detect various errors and unrepresentative values of the reports and make the variations of wind, pressure change, and the like, as consistent as possible along the vertical and in time. The second objective is to consider surface, upper wind, and raob data together and deduce from them as much as possible about the synoptic situation. Of these, the first objective is by far the easier. Not only do errors stand out in an obvious way, but you can also deduce from the time sequence such things as whether a wind shift in a certain layer is transitory, lasting for only 6 hours, or whether it denotes a longer period change. The representativeness of 24-hour height changes is also readily apparent from time section analysis. Considering the normal extent and rate of motion of disturbances in low latitudes, marked upper-height fails of 30 meters per 24 hours or more should not be preceded or followed by rises of the same magnitude in the 24-hour interval centered 12 hours before or after, except when accompanied by strong winds and large wind shifts. Otherwise, one or more soundings must be suspect. In such cases, emhasis is placed on the nightime data. At reliable stations these changes should be accepted as correct except (1) when the raob is taken in heavy rain, (2) if a large change is observed, yet there is no previous
The first part to the evaluation of time
sections, as shown in figure 9-2-2 is largely
qualitative and dependent on an analysts skill and
experience. This is true in even larger measure for
the second part, since formal procedures for the
integration of time-section weather data do not
exist. The following five semiqualitative steps can
be carried out in order to better understand the
synoptic situation: 1. Mark the principal trough lines and shear
lines in the wind field with orange lines and
indicate the direction of displacement (especially
eastward and westward) with an arrow. These
lines give the slope of the disturbance and also
show its base and top. The occurrence of weather
relative to the time of a wind shift shows where
the bad weather is concentrated (on the forward
or rearward side of the disturbance) and the extent
of such weather. Comparing your time section
with time sections from stations where the
disturbance passed previously will (1) furnish the
rate of motion, (2) show changes in intensity of
winds and wind shifts, and (3) reveal changes in
weather distribution and intensity with respect to
the system. To a lesser degree, changes in intensity
can also be determined by variations in the
amount of 24-hour surface pressure change. 2. Draw isolines showing the 24-hour height
changes. The interval chosen should be 15 meters
below 400 millibars and 30 meters above. Examine
these changes closely for their relation to the wind
shift lines. Trough lines, in particular, must
coincide by definition with the instantaneous zero
height changes. Normally, the 24-hour zero
change line parallels the slope of the wind shift
lines and is located near them. The layer of
strongest 24-hour height changes should be the
layer of greatest intensity associated with a moving
disturbance. The strongest wind shifts should be
found in this layer. This applies to vectorial wind
shift, not merely the directional change, since the
It is emphasized that the foregoing, while
essentially correct in practice, is not always
observed and has no necessary foundation in
theory. Sometimes there are persistent height falls
with little change of wind. The height falls are one
indication of a deepening stationary disturbance,
and such an occurrence should be carefully
checked for this possibility. The vertical gradient of 24-hour height
changes also indicates areas of cooling and
warming, since it indicates whether constant-pressure
surfaces have moved closer together or
farther apart in the vertical (thickness changes).
Height changes usually are largest in the high
troposphereboth the falls ahead of a trough and
the rises to its rear. This indicates that most
troughs have a cold-core structure and that ridges
have a warm-core structure. The intensity of these
troughs and ridges increases upward in the
atmosphere to 200 to 150 mb. Higher up toward
the tropopause, the cold troughs and warm ridges
undergo a reversal in the temperature field, and
they decrease in intensity and die out. This is the
main reason the 200-mb level is the best choice
for high tropospheric analysis in the tropics. The validity of the geostrophic wind relation-ship
in the tropics is questionable; however, the
vertical wind shear appears to give a fair idea of
the distribution of cold and warm air to latitudes
10 and even to 5. At a station where the easterly
winds decrease in intensity with height, colder air
is found poleward of the station and warmer
air equatorward. In the Northern Hemisphere,
northerly winds increasing in intensity with height
ahead of a trough indicate colder air in the trough. The same can be said about the southerly winds
to the rear of the trough. Winds usually turn
counterclockwise with height (back) ahead of such
troughs and clockwise (veer) to their rear. Thus,
it is the general pattern, not the amount of
geostrophic thermal advection, that agrees with
the movement of cold and warm areas. 3. Indicate the depth of the moist layer. This
is the height of the 5 g/kg (grams per kilogram)
moisture level in the rainy season, and the 3 g/kg
level in the dry season. 4. Indicate the bottom and top of stable
layers, especially the trade inversion. The potential
temperature difference between the top and
bottom and the inversion thickness in millibars
are the best measures of the inversion strength.
The greater the increase of potential temperature
through the inversion, and the thicker the layer,
the stronger the inversion. Inversion analysis
establishes average cloud heights.
5. Mark the bases and tops of the equatorial easterlies and polar westerlies. Disturbances move eastward when a deep layer of westerlies is present, and westward in deep easterlies. A change in the thickness of a layer of easterlies or westerlies may indicate a reversal of the direction of motion, if the change is representative of a large area. The temporary appearance of deep westerlies at one station during the passage of a cold-core low to the north cannot be interpreted in this way. If you operate in an area with a reasonable station network, you will, after going through a number of time sections, acquire a fairly definite knowledge of how to draw these charts and a knowledge of what to look for with regard to bad weather areas. |
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