COMPUTATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORECAST GUIDES  

As the analyst of the Skew T diagram, you will calculate critical values upon which the forecaster will base his thunderstorm fore-cast. You have already determined that thunder-storms may occur and have used the indices to find a probability of occurrence and a prediction of the general strength of the expected thunder-storms. Now the forecaster must make a deter-mination of the maximum gusts expected and what size hail is expected, if any. With this information, the forecaster may issue a thunderstorm warning or recommend that the proper thunderstorm condition be set. The following techniques will allow you to cal-culate wind gust speed and direction, to determine if hail is expected, hail size, and the strength of turbulence expected in the convective activity.

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