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Page Title: Fallout Prediction Overland
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Fallout Prediction Overland

To predict the geographical areas that will be affected by the most hazardous fallout (aones 1 and 2), you will need the following:

an EDM (effective downwind message) or your calculations of effective downwind direction (EDD) and effective downwind fallout (EDF) speed;

a chart of the geographic region in the 1:50,000, 1:100,000, or 1:250,000 scale;

a fallout template from the pocket on the end cover of the ATP-45 (there are three land templates [one for each of the above scales] and one unscaled shipboard-use template); and  

a report of a nuclear detonation giving the estimated yield, the location of the burst, the time of the burst, and height of the burst (assume a surface burst if the height of burst is not known or is not reported).

The fallout prediction procedure using an EDM for an overland detonation follows:

1. Determine which line of the EDM (ALPHA through GOLF) to use in the prediction procedure. For example, a 4-kiloton blast requires that you use the BRAVO line.

2. Draw a line on the (land) fallout template from GZ to the compass rose direction cor-responding to the effective downwind direction determined in step 1. Place GN at the end of this line.

3. Determine the downwind distance to Zone I. Enter the nomogram (fig. 6-9-7) with the yield of the weapon and the downwind speed.

REMEMBER: If the yield-group line you are using contains a three-digit group, the digits represent the downwind distance.

4. Double the distance obtained in step 3 to get the downwind distance to Zone II.

5. Scribe arcs between the two radial lines of the template at the Zone I and Zone II distances.

6. Draw lines from the specific yield group semicircle on the template (A or B or C) to the intersection points of the Zone I arc with the radial lines. See figure 6-9-12.

7. Draw the H+1 and H+2 time lines as dotted arcs. These lines represent the distances that the fallout will travel at the given downwind speed.

8. Label the template. Write in the map scale, estimated yield, location, date, and

Figure 6-9-12.-Land fallout template showing intersection of Delta yield group lines with radials and Zone I arc.

time of the burst, and the EDM used in the prediction.  

9. Overlay the template onto the chart, Place GZ over the station or location on the chart where the burst occurred and align the GN line with true north. The Zone I and II areas are now visible on your chart.

Example:

One hour ago, at 2120Z, a surface nuclear detonation occurred at Bonn, West Germany. The estimated yield of the burst was 35 kilotons. You are working with a map that has a scale of 1:250,000, and the daily EDM has been received:  

Based on the information above, prepare a fallout prediction as follows:

1. Use the Delta line of the EDM, because the weapon yield (35 kt) is between 30 and 100 kilotons.

2. Draw the GN line on the template. It should extend from the center of the yield semicircles through 122 degrees on the compass rose. See figure 6-9-12.

3. Determine the downwind distance of Zone I using the nomogram (fig. 6-9-7), the effective downwind speed (029 km/h), and the yield (35 kt). Your answer should be 33 kilometers.

4. Double the Zone I distance (33 kilo-meters) to get the distance to Zone II (33 kilometers x 2 = 66 kilometers.

5. Scribe arcs between the two radial lines on the template at 33 and 66 kilometers.

6. Draw lines from the Delta yield group semicircle on the template to the intersection points of the 33-kilometer arc with the radials. See figure 6-9-12.

7. Draw the H+1 and H+2 time lines as dotted arcs at 29 and 58 kilometers.  

Scale: 1:250,000

Estimated Yield: 35 kt

Date-Time of Attack: 202120Z

Location of Burst: Bonn, West Germany

EDM: 20/1200Z Sept, 89

9. Overlay the template on a 1:250,000 Europe chart. Place GZ of the template over the location of Bonn, West Germany and align the GN line with true north. The areas of most hazardous fallout can now be seen on the chart.

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